Working The Seam: Week 1 - Welcome Back, Football



To those of you who were with us last year, welcome back! For the newcomers, it's our pleasure to have you here with us. The purpose of this article is to bring you a more in depth look at the WR plays around the industry for the upcoming week. We will cover the best & worst match ups, noteworthy trends, leverage plays, & even value plays for the week.


For this week our data is going to be based off of 2019 data since we did not have the benefit of seeing any pre season games. As for the trends, I’ll begin to include snap rate, target share and air yards starting Week 2.


(If there is anything you would like added to these articles in the future please leave a comment down below!)



Best Matchups


Chris Godwin: Checking in with the #1 WR/CB matchup on the slate is last year's breakout star WR, Chris GodWIN. Godwin & the Bucs will be taking on the Saints in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the week with a total of 47.5. On top of the fact that Godwin's 1v1 matchup is already a good one against P.J. Williams, he got a massive QB upgrade going from Winston to quite possibly the G.O.A.T. in Tom Brady. As for Williams, he was brutal in coverage last season especially in the slot where Godwin spent a majority of his time (63%). Williams' coverage grade of 47.6 (per PFF) ranked 106th out of 117 qualified corners. On average Williams allowed 13.4 YPR (Yards Per Reception), only broke up 2 passes all season on 89 targets, & allowed a catch rate of 71.4%. Godwin is likely to be one of the higher owned WRs on the slate this week, but if you wanted to gain some leverage in your tourney lineups then you could use him as a 1-off in lineups that don't have any other pieces of this game.



DeSean Jackson: How many of you all remember Jackson's week 1 performance last year? I know the Boogie Army who was with us last year sure does, but in case you forgot let me remind you. On 9 targets he brought in 8 receptions for 154 yards & 2 TDs against the Redskins. Well guess who he opens up against this weekend? Yup, it's the Redskins. With the a few of the Eagles WR's banged up this weekend (Jeffrey & Reagor) there is a chance Jackson sees a plethora of targets again this weekend. The Washington secondary as a unit was atrocious last season ranking 28th so anyone Jackson matches up with won't be an issue. With that being said, his projected 1v1 matchup sets up as a smash spot against Fabian Moreau. Moreau ranked 99th among 117 CBs in coverage last season and ranked #76 in "Burn Rate". Burn Rate is the percentage of targets allowed in which the defensive back's assigned received gained more than 5 yards of separation (playerprofiler.com). Although DJax is aging I have no doubt he can still fly down the field & burn who ever is on him this weekend.