The Takeoff 9.9.19


Nick Delgado | @MrESPNMiami


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Shane Bieber: Bieber once again went out & continued the streak I’ve noted in the last few takeoffs, “He’s had more than 7ks & a QS in every start but one since July so we can bank on that for an extremely safe floor from Bieber tonight.” Tonight he matches up against the Angels who in his lone start against them he went the distance with 9 Ks. Outside of Trout, I don’t think this Angels team presents a threat to Bieber & his streak of dominance. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate tonight & rightfully so (FD 11.3; DK 11.7). He’s been striking out hitters at a 34.6% rate over the last 2 weeks.


Jacob DeGrom: He’s had back to back shaky starts & it’s being reflected on his price today over on both sites (FD 10.6; DK 11.2). The hope is that people will fade him due to his recent struggles but that’s unlikely as it’s hard to get a CY Young candidate at this price now a day. Tonight he faces the red hot DBacks who are 11-2 in their last 13 games. DeGrom’s struggles the last 2 weeks are due to the fact that lefties have been getting the best of him (LISO 0.478) & ARI has 2 who can really mash in Marte & Escobar. If DeGrom can avoid from those guys tonight, I think we see a big time bounce back start as he’s throwing with the wind behind him & the DBacks have the lowest IRT (2.92) of the night.



Good Pitchers...Bad Matchups?


Aaron Nola: He takes on the elite offense of the Braves tonight. In his 4 outings against them he’s registered 2 good starts, & 2 bad ones. His season stats against ATL: 25 IP, 3.60 ERA, .211 AVG. Over the last month he’s been solid posting a 28.6% K rate & a 52% GB rate with his only blip being LHH power (LISO .205).

James Paxton: If there is any one on tonight’s slate who’s been as nasty as Bieber over the last month it’s this guy. Striking out hitters at 33%, & limiting power to both sides (LISO 0.116; RISO 0.132). However, his matchup tonight is vs. BOS who has a few lefty mashers (JD, X, Mookie etc..). In his 3 starts vs. BOS this season, these are his numbers: 18 IP, 4.50 ERA, 27 SO, & 5 HR. Those numbers are a bit inflated though due to his 1 really bad start against them when he gave up 7 ER & 4 HR. It is likely he is going to be low owned tonight due to the matchup & the aces up above. If it ends up being the case I may be willing to take the gamble in a GPP.


Zack Greinke: Still looking for that breakthrough start as a member of the Astros. He’s been roughed up his last two times out (4 ER & 5 ER respectively) against TB & MIL. Tonight he goes up against OAK so his struggles may continue. Greinke hasn’t been striking out anyone over the last month (19.1%) & OAK doesn’t strike out very much vs. RHP (20.7%).