Takeoff 8/16: Contrarianism has Peaks and Valleys


Note: The Boogie Factor has officially been launched. I want to give you a better understanding about this metric. It's something that we've been working on since the end of 2019 season. It's a metric that takes every single factor into account. We are talking about EVERYTHING. Exit velocity, Average batted ball distance, weather, stadium, air density, expected wOBA, not only ISO, but expected weighted ISOs, K%, matchup, XwOBA, XFIP, Money Lines, Oddsmakers expectations, etc. There isn't one category that will be unaccounted for. The only * I would put for now, is give it time to soak in a larger 2020 sample and we should be seeing amazing results for the rest of the season.


**We're gearing up for our first 2020 podcast coming next week! We'll be collecting all your questions and provide further information over the next couple of days**


Summary of Last Night's Results

Whenever possible, we'll be doing a review of the previous night's slate to not only have a better understanding of what transpired, but to see if we had the correct approach. While results are the ultimate goal, it's crucial to review our process and make sure we're on the right path.


It starts with our Primary Arm in Corbin, he failed us miserably. Looking back in hindsight, I lowered his projected points as the afternoon went on. I mentioned how I actually thought several of BAL bats can give Corbin some trouble. And yet, I didn't really backoff in my recommendation. That was a fail as far as my process is concerned. The difference between how I'm viewing this from this year's perspective compared to last year's? While I regret having Corbin to the extent I did (36% DK, 25% FD), I realize that the result was one on the further end of Corbin's ROO (Range of Outcomes).


We decided to take some chances and go with the 5% owned arm of Eovaldi over the 35% owned Gausman. The results weren't very favorable, but the process was on point. Especially since we didn't recommend fading Gausman, rather, to cap his ownership at 20% on DK as your SP 2.