MLB Takeoff 9/17: Bieber Fever


Note: The Boogie Factor has officially been launched. I want to give you a better understanding about this metric. It's something that we've been working on since the end of 2019 season. It's a metric that takes every single factor into account. We are talking about EVERYTHING. Exit velocity, Average batted ball distance, weather, stadium, air density, expected wOBA, not only ISO, but expected weighted ISOs, K%, matchup, XwOBA, XFIP, Money Lines, Oddsmakers expectations, etc. There isn't one category that will be unaccounted for. The only * I would put for now, is give it time to soak in a larger 2020 sample and we should be seeing amazing results for the rest of the season.


Primary Arms


S.Bieber: He's "cooled down" a bit over his last 2 starts giving up 4 ER total, but has still struck out 18 hitters over those 12 innings. Tonight is the perfect get right game for him against DET (2.8) who has a team RISO .166 & a K% of 29%! Incoming 12 K game from Bieber tonight..


A.Nola: Nola has been awesome this season owning an xFIP of 2.27, K% of 35.5%, & a GB% of 55.4%. Tonight, he faces the Mets for the 3rd time this season. Over his first 2 starts against them he has compiled 12.1 IP, 18 K's, & 3 ER. Although the wind will be blowing out to CF tonight, the Mets have the 2nd lowest IRT on the slate at 3.6.



Secondary Arms


F.Valdez: After getting off to a blazing start this season, he's been brutal over his last 4 starts as he's given up 20 ER over his last 26 IP. However, he gets a good matchup against the Rangers tonight who have struggled against LHP all season. When Valdez faced the Rangers earlier this month he went 7 innings, struck out 8, & allowed 3 ER.