MLB Takeoff 9/12: Lookin' For Leverage


Note: The Boogie Factor has officially been launched. I want to give you a better understanding about this metric. It's something that we've been working on since the end of 2019 season. It's a metric that takes every single factor into account. We are talking about EVERYTHING. Exit velocity, Average batted ball distance, weather, stadium, air density, expected wOBA, not only ISO, but expected weighted ISOs, K%, matchup, XwOBA, XFIP, Money Lines, Oddsmakers expectations, etc. There isn't one category that will be unaccounted for. The only * I would put for now, is give it time to soak in a larger 2020 sample and we should be seeing amazing results for the rest of the season.


Primary Arms


Z.Gallen: Just had his MLB record setting streak of most consecutive starts with 3 ER or less snapped at 23 his last time out when he faced the Giants. Tonight I'd look for him to start another streak as he goes up against the Mariners who have the lowest IRT on the slate at 3.8. The Mariners strike out at nearly a 28% clip against RHP so look for Gallen to pile up the K's tonight.


Secondary Arms


Z.Plesac: You're probably thinking to yourself, "how is a guy with an ERA under 2 not in the primary arms category"? Well, let me answer that one for you. Despite having a 27% K rate, 1 BB%, & an xFIP of 3.3, Plesac really hasn't been tested this year. He's only made 5 starts & 40% of them have come against the Royals. Tonight he faces the Twins who are finally healthy and the wind will be blowing out to centerfield = we are expected to see an 8% in HRs tonight. I'm not saying to outright fade him, I just won't be getting to him as much as the field.


Added: After seeing ownership come out I actually will be higher than I thought lol. With Gallen being the highest owned arm by a landslide, Plesac at this point is becoming a leverage play.