MLB Takeoff 7/9 Preview: Ground Chuck



Primary Arms


Charlie Morton: Morton is the clear-cut top option across the board this evening despite giving up four earned runs in both of his last two starts against the Marlins. I'm hoping the recency bias will keep most folks away from Morton tonight despite the ballpark upgrade and the Marlins having the fifth-highest strikeout rate against RHP (25.5%) with just a .138 ISO and 91 wRC+ this season. Morton was cruising last time out before a three-run homer by Adam Duvall spelled the end of his outing and really put a damper on an otherwise good outing from Morton. "Ground Chuck" is a strikeout pitcher (27.6%) that keeps the ball down and gets outs that way as well, mitigating potential damage against him (34% HH rate). The Braves are reeling as told by their 42-44 record after reaching the NLCS last year and need a big outing from Morton tonight to get this series started on the right foot and turn their campaign around. Ownership is currently projected over 30 POWN% on DraftKings and just under that mark over on FanDuel.


Kenta Maeda: Maeda appears to be finally built up and healthy and is coming off his best start of the season racking up 10 K's over 6 scoreless innings. Maeda is way too cheap in the low $7K range after his last start and facing a Tigers club that strikes out at the second-highest rate vs. RHP (26.4%). Maeda looked like his 2020 version last time out that had an incredible 32.3% K rate, 4% walk rate, and just a 25% HH rate. He'll likely be very chalky coming in around the same ownership as Morton, if not more with this matchup and his salary, but he has the highest ceiling on this slate if he can throw out another double-digit strikeout performance against Detriot.


Secondary Arms


Taijuan Walker: Walker will get the ball tonight in the same matchup initially schedule for last night after the game was postponed and checks