I'm pushing the Takeoff through now so you can all get a sense of where I'm going but I'll be updating it more over the next hour. Sorry, I got lost with time while I was looking at every matchup and adjusting the range of outcomes.
Primary Arms (FD,DK)
J.Flaherty (10.5, 9.0): What is likely my favorite overall play for DK, Flaherty is set to face one of the weaker lineups in PIT. The guy was a monster against both sides of the plate but especially to RHBs (35 RK%). A -180 favorite and growing, along with PIT having a low 3.2 IRT should tell the whole story. (Only projected at 6% on FD)
J.Verlander (11.2, 11.4): The skill level ranks him at the top of this loaded pitching pool but the price is rather high for the first start of the season. I have no doubts he can excel here and will almost surely get the W. Will they let him pitch 7+ innings? I have my doubts. Wherever you can afford him, by all means go for it but I'm likely going to try to pay down and leave some extra room for the bats. He's currently projected for a slate high 34% on DK as well.
ADDED: After digging in everywhere, Verlander has moved back up for me. I don't love the salary with the unknown of going deep into the game, but he's likely the surest thing. On FD I'm looking to have around 30%. DK might be in similar range.
S.Beiber (10.2, 10.3): A whopping -210 favorite, Beiber will be backed by an underrated offense to go along with his superior K upside (30.15%) vs. a poor KC offensive unit. Again, my only concern is how deep will he be allowed to go?
C.Paddack (8.9,8.6): Here is where I'm guaranteed to be overweight. Paddack is a personal favorite of mine, I've been following his progress since he was in the minors for my Miami Marlins, who of course, traded him away for pure garbage. Anyways, on this type of slate, he's surely to go at least somewhat overlooked even with a crisp 26.9 K%, pitching in a very pitcher friendly venue, being backed by a very underrated offense. He's currently projected for UNDER 5% on FD! I mean, jesus. Even if we simply have 10% of exposure we are more than doubling the field. That was a big element to my success last season. As far as DK, I'm perfectly fine with him as well. Unlike several other pitchers, Paddack is one of the better control and efficient talents there is. (DK scoring is a lot harder on SPs who have issues with control). My one concern is SD pulling him early.
A.Nola (9.9, 9.1): Seems like he recaptured his ace-like potential last season. Pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks should hurt his overall potential, but he somehow ended up having pristine numbers in his home splits.(K rate 2%+, ISO dropped to .138, while slugging allowed dropped by almost .100 points). The Marlins have an improved lineup, but there shouldn't be too many bats that can