MLB Takeoff 6/29 Preview





Primary Arms


Brandon Woodruff: Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff is the highest priced arm on both sites on this 15-game slate and is also the pitcher picking up the most ownership at over 30 POWN%. His teammate Freddy Peralta was a primary arm in this matchup last night against a Cubs team that strikes out at the highest rate in MLB against RHP (26.5%). Naturally, Woodruff will be a top option once more this evening w/ his 31% K rate, .208 wOBA against and elite walk rate (5.9%). Woodruff has been lights out this season and that terrific run of form should continue this evening in this home start against the Cubs.


Walker Buehler: Dodgers RHP Walker Buehler is coming off a solid, but unspectacular loss to the Cubs last time out when he allowed three runs over 6 innings and struck out just 6 despite facing a team that strikes out more than any other in baseball against RHP. The 4% decrease in strikeouts compared to just two years ago in concerning, but Buehler has been able to work deep into games and be a reliable starter for the Dodgers. This evening he checks in as the third highest priced pitcher on DraftKings picking up double digit ownership. The Giants strike out at a top five rate (25.9%), but are also the top team in ISO vs. RHP (.197) with top five metrics across the board (.331 wOBA, 112 wRC+), showcasing the difficulty of this spot for Buehler. He may be a better play on FanDuel this evening with single digit ownership and comes in as the fourth highest pitcher for the blue brand.

Secondary Arms


Lucas Giolito: Giolito is a fine play coming in at a lower salary and slightly less ownership than the two primary arms above. Minnesota wouldn't normally be a team you'd look to target with their .183 ISO and .322 wOBA against RHP w/ just a 22% K rate, but Giolito enjoyed success against them in their only matchup this season going 8 innings allowing just 1 run on 2 hits and striking out 11. Giolito has been a durable and consistent arm for the South Siders this season and that success should continue tonight.


Robbie Ray: The Blue Jays left-hander Ray checks in as the second-highest priced starter across both sites tonight in this home matchup against the Mariners. Seattle has actually gotten better of late moving into the top-half of the league against LHP with a .165 ISO, .292 wOBA and 88 wRC+, but still possess a high strikeout rate (27.5%) against southpaws on the campaign. Ray has been reliable this season for Toronto and should be able to put together another solid outing racking up the strikeouts (31% K rate) and limiting free passes (6% BB rate). Despite some adverse conditions in their "home ballpark" this season, Ray has been slightly better at home (Buffalo & Dunedin) w/ a 3-1 record and 2.97 ERA in 5 starts versus 2-2 w/ a 3.58 ERA on the road. POWN% coming in...