MLB Takeoff 6/28: Bauer Outage



Primary Arms


Trevor Bauer: On a 9-game Monday slate, Bauer is my top preferred pay up arm drawing a home start against the divisional rival San Francisco Giants. Despite the crackdown of the "sticky stuff", Bauer has worked six-plus innings in each of his last three starts recording at least 8 strikeouts each time out. Bauer did a remarkable job on the ESPN broadcast last night going into detail on the effects of sticky stuff and the three reasons pitchers would use it. I recommend going back and listening to that conversation if you haven't already, but nevertheless I think Bauer has shown he can continue to pitch at an elite level (.193 xBA, .268 xwOBA, 31.6% K rate) without the help of a foreign substance. The Giants strike near the top of the league against RHP (25.9%), but are also number one in ISO (.196) and top five in wOBA (.330) and wRC+ (112). Bauer will need to keep the ball in the yard to have success (first in MLB with 17 home runs allowed), but he's still my preferred number one pitching option this evening coming in at just over 30 POWN% on DraftKings and 20% on FanDuel.


Freddy Peralta: The other elite option for tonight is Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta who is currently in the midst of a breakout campaign at 7-2 with a 2.11 ERA w/ a 36.4% K rate. Peralta is also near the top of the league in several advanced metrics including xBA (.162), xSLG (.295) and xwOBA (.251). Peralta is picking up the most ownership across both sites just ahead of Bauer in this home matchup with a Cubs team that leads the league in strikeouts vs. RHP (26.5%). This will be Peralta's fourth start against Chicago this season in the NL Central and he's currently 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA w/ 25 K's over 15 innings. This might be the night to load up with both primary arms, especially in the smaller field tournaments.

Secondary Arms


Lucas Giolito: See the note below regarding potential weather concerns in this game, but if the forecast and outlook starts to clear up, Giolito is a fine play coming in slightly lower in salary and ownership than the two primar