Trevor Bauer: Lately, Bauer isn't quite as elite as we might think, but neither is the Padres offense. Both have been consistently very good, but certainly maintain bloated reputations due to media coverage and on-field flare. Make no mistake, Bauer is still the best and most proven pitcher on the slate, but he's been touched up a little of late. Excluding his last outing against the D-Backs (7 shutout innings and 8 K's), Bauer has surrendered 15 runs (12 earned) over his previous 4 starts combined. That includes 6 long balls, 11 walks, and just 23 K's in 25 IP. It's definitely not awful, but it's probably underwhelming from what most expect. On DK he has only cracked 20 FPTS once over his past 5 starts - the previously mentioned D-Backs outing. On the other hand, the Padres have also taken a downturn recently. Despite a 5-game winning streak, they are still averaging less than 4 runs per game in June and sport just a .224 team batting average. On the season, they are surprisingly middle of the road when it comes to most offensive stats, including BA (16th), Runs Scored (11th), SLG (19th), and OPS (13th). However, they do strikeout at the 6th-lowest rate in the league, with just 8.37 K/9. They also have defaulted to relying on home runs lately, and Bauer has surrendered his share of long balls, but this matchup still favors Bauer considerably. Notably, he's only gone less than 6 innings in one outing this season, so even when he's not dominating that insistence on going deep into games leaves open a scoring opportunity that other pitchers don't have.
Robbie Ray: Robbie expects to be the highest, or second highest (Bauer) pOWN% on this slate, projecting 46% on DK and 36% on FD. He's not the guy if you're looking to differentiate yourself from the rest of the field, but the ceiling is undeniably high tonight. Ray is hittable, sporting a 3.50 ERA, 2.05 HR/9, and 4.13 xERA, but even if he does surrender a few runs it's the strikeouts that we're here for. His outlook is good, bringing a 11.69 K/9 into a matchup against a Marlins lineup that strikes out 5th most in the league per game and ranks 27th in OPS, Runs Scored, and SLG.
Trevor Rogers: Is it too early to call Rogers matchup proof? Probably, but he’s steadily building his case. Up against the Blue Jays, th