Week 3 Initial Thoughts




After a Victorious Week 1, we saw an ugly week 2 for the most part. Luckily, some of you told me you still came out on top, thank god. I tend to take things hard when they don't work out how I had predicted. The good and bad with baseball; it's played every day. The wins are short-lived but so too are the loses. With football, it's a little different. After Week 1, I was flying high all week, pleased that I was able to take down my first Football Qualifier. Week 2 has already felt forever, and I'm anxious to get back to the winning ways.


Hindsight is 20/20 but I never quite felt too good heading into last week's games. A big part of that was my health, and that I fell a bit behind in terms of weekly research and getting my lineups done. It got to a point on Sunday morning that I blindly started entering optimizer lineups into big-time contests. It was a mistake that I hope doesn't happen again. I was watching the games with some of the Boogie team, and I felt I let them and all of you down. It's just the way I am; I'm hard on myself. The good news is that I'm that much hungrier to succeed this week, and I'm liking the roster construction a whole lot more this week. So let's dive in...


While we still don't have a lot of data this season, we are slowly starting to see the picture. (Usually, it's after week 4, a full month of games, that I really get comfortable with the numbers). We are starting to see what teams play uptempo and what teams bring games to a grinding halt. There's a lot to gain from knowing what games are likely to see a higher pace of play, which in turn brings a higher number of snaps, which then leads to a greater likelihood of scoring opportunities.


The game that is shaping up to be filled with fantasy potential is KC vs. BAL. The Ravens lead the NFL in plays per game at 72.5. This isn't a fluke either; last year they led the league yet again with an average of 70.9. Having Lamar Jackson at the helm for the entire season is only going to help increase that amount. This fits perfectly into this week's matchup with the Chiefs, who finished 2nd last season in plays per game allowed. Adding even more beneficial stats from last season, the Ravens and Chiefs games both finished in the top 3 in plays per game. The one caveat that should be mentioned is the Ravens elite run defense. They are allowing a measly 1.8 yards per carry so far, and grade out as a top 3 run defense according to Pro Football Focus. (Credit Pat Thorman with that information)


Naturally, there will always be an overreaction to events that occurred in the previous week. Knowing this, we need to use it to our advantage. What better place to take advantage of that then in a game that features a 55 implied total and likely to climb even higher.