7/19 KBO: Breaking Down a Pitcher's Matchup and Outlook

Updated: Jul 19, 2020




Today's Takeoff will be a little different. Let's use today's slate as an example of how we can build a lineup that has the upside to take down a major tournament AND how to adjust our approach for Head-to-Head / 50-50 contests.


Let's begin by focusing on the most important and vital position; our starting pitching. When reviewing the different options at the pitching position, we need to keep in mind what each of their strengths and weaknesses are, and if they have the potential to get us where we want to go. Baseball is well known for it's high variance in its day to day results. Believe it or not, projecting a range of outcomes for a pitcher is much more straightforward than it is for a hitter. On a typical outing, a pitcher can face anywhere from 20-40 batters in a single game, while a hitter can be expected to receive 3-5 at bats.


For this example, we'll be focusing on a DraftKings scenario, but I'll be including a FanDuel centered breakdown in the coming week.


Today's slate has one elite ace that stands out amongst this group in Dan Straily.


Looking strictly at the surface numbers, the next closest player in terms of average DK points is almost five full points behind (S.Moon). That might not sound like a lot, but it's actually almost a 25% decrease in output. When we compare their prices, Straily becomes even more evident as the number one option. Reason being, his $9400 salary (18.8% of the cap space) offers us a greater overall projection and value per dollar than S.Moon's $8100 (16.2% of the cap space). Of course, this is only the beginning in terms of what we should be looking for when determining what pitcher we should be considering.


Our next step is to look at how our pitcher should fare vs. the upcoming matchup. We can review how the overall team stacks up, followed by researching the individual matchups. While .ISO and wOBA numbers are a key component to the process, nothing is as vital as strikeouts. The ability to generate strikeouts is the most important facet to a pitcher's DFS prospects. Depending on the matchup, a pitcher can be expected to outperform/underperform his K ability. If the lineup he’s facing is littered with hitters who have struggled to create contact and/or power vs. similar handed pitchers, we can be far more confident in his likelihood to perform closer to his ceiling when looking at the range of outcomes. Similarly, if the team he's facing has generally hit well against comparable pitchers, we should be more cautious and lower expectations. Without further ado, let's see how Straily matches up vs. his opponent